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Join AMS commodities analyst Rich Balvanz for early morning market comments on your local affiliate of the Iowa Agribusiness Radio Network.  Find your local affiliate by clicking the Broadcast Comments button at left.

Today's market headline items to take to the coffee shop this morning......

Corn futures are 1 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are down 5 to 6 cents and wheat is up 1 cent.  Live cattle and lean hog futures are mixed.
 
The strange dichotomy of the commodities with bearish fundamentals rising in value while those with bullish fundamentals declining continued overnight.  Corn and wheat are higher, soybeans lower. 
 
Weather remains a key supportive fundamental for corn and wheat in the near term as rainfall appears limited over the next 10 days in much of the central US.  See “Ag Weather Watch” below for more details.
 
A Dow Jones report this morning says many Asian corn importers are sitting back waiting for corn prices to fall before covering their remaining needs for the summer.   Traders said Japan – normally the biggest customer for US corn – has covered only 25 percent of its needs for the July through September time period.  Buyers indicated premiums for old crop corn are too high, and they will attempt to wait until a bumper new crop is assured and prices fall before making additional purchases.  But it is unlikely buyers can wait that long, as evidenced by this week’s purchase of 500,000 MT of Brazilian corn by Japanese feed manufacturers.  A second purchase of similar size is said to be in the pipeline.
 
Buyers of ethanol by-product DDGS have also been holding back on purchases.  The US Grains Council said Southeast Asian imports of Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles from January through March fell 11 percent to 264,000 MT.  The Council said overall US exports of DDGS from January through March were down 8 percent.
 
USDA releases its monthly cattle on feed report this afternoon.  Traders expect total on-feed numbers will be up 0.3 percent from a year ago with monthly placements down 11.6 percent and marketings down 1.4 percent.
 
Outside market influences remain unchanged as investors cast nervous eyes toward Europe, where stock prices declined today after credit downgrades were slapped on 16 Spanish banks.  Moody’s rating agency said the banks face a rising tide of bad loans linked to Spain’s recession, a gloomy real estate market and high unemployment.  Greece remains in chaos.  But Wall Street appears headed toward a higher opening as shares of social media giant Facebook start trading.  Buyer demand is expected to be very strong at the opening price of $38.  But many investors question whether Facebook has a real financial future when a high percentage of its users say they believe it is a fad.
 
In early trade June crude oil is up $0.04 at $92.59 per barrel.  June gold is up $14.40 at $1589.30 per ounce.  June US dollar index futures are up 0.135 at 81.675.  June S&P 500 futures are up 7.75 at 1309.00.
 
Ag Weather Watch
 
The longer term weather outlook continues to include crop-threatening weather for much of the eastern and southern Corn Belt. The maps covering the 6-10 day period today continue to feature a fairly deep trough over the western and north-central US and a fairly strong ridge, for this time of the year, over the east.
 
The Midwest was dry again on Thursday. While temperatures were below normal in the far eastern Midwest, readings were near normal in the central portions and above normal in the western Midwest.
 
Midwest Forecasts
 
WEST: Mainly dry today. Chance for scattered light to locally moderate showers and thundershowers during the weekend period. Rainfall potential appears to be 0.25-0.75 inch and locally heavier through western and northern areas, 0.10-0.50 inch elsewhere in the region. Temperatures average above to much above normal again today.  Highs today should be in the 80s and low 90s. The northwest may be cooler Saturday but the balance of the region continues very warm. The region should average near to below normal by Sunday.  Mainly dry Monday and Tuesday. Chance for showers and thundershowers redeveloping Wednesday or Wednesday night, favoring the western and northern areas. Temperatures average below normal Monday, near to above normal west and below normal east Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.
 
EAST: Mainly dry today and Saturday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers develop in the west Sunday or Sunday night and move through the east Monday. Rainfall potential with these showers appears to be 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier. Temperatures average above normal today, above to well above normal during the weekend. Highs during the weekend likely range from the middle 80s to the low 90s F. Cooler Monday but still likely near to above normal.   Dry west, chance for afternoon showers east, Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Wednesday.
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK: Temperatures are expected to average above normal. Rainfall is expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east.
 
Crop Impact Summaries
 
MIDWEST: There appears to be some risk of a drier, much warmer trend for the east and south Midwest and northern Delta during the 10 day period. This increases stress to developing crops, especially in areas that have already been trending drier recently...southern Illinois to the northern Delta. No significant concerns for western Midwest crop areas, despite yesterday's fairly warm temperatures.
 
CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: A recent drier and warmer trend may increase stress to wheat is some areas but overall the conditions are still mostly favorable. Longer range charts suggest some chance for more showers to occur but these could favor the northern areas.
 
NORTHERN PLAINS: Episodes of showers and thunderstorms will maintain favorable conditions for developing crops. Field work delays are possible but since planting is well ahead of normal this is not that important.
 
CANADIAN PRAIRIES: Showers and rain will maintain adequate to surplus available soil moisture for developing crops while also causing field work and planting delays. Fairly cool weather behind this trough may threaten more frost for western growing areas this weekend.
 
SOUTHEAST: Recent and forecasted rains will improve conditions for crops in Florida, the Carolinas and Virginia. Rains have also recently improved conditions in Alabama and north Georgia. The coverage in south Georgia has been somewhat less.
 
EAST UKRAINE/SOUTH, VOLGA AND URALS RUSSIA/ WEST KAZAKH: A weakening front over eastern Ukraine and North Caucasus Russia will lead to a few more showers today but after today it should be drier. Showers this week have helped ease stress to developing crops in south and east Ukraine and North Caucasus Russia but we appear to be heading into another extended drier spell. The Volga Region, the Urals and western Kazakh continue mostly dry at this time. The long range outlook depicts a mean trough over or just east of the Volga river. This should be a drier pattern for areas mentioned but it should not be very hot. Despite this weeks showers rainfall is still needed in South and east Ukraine and South Russia.
 
CHINA: In general the next 7 days is a drier period for the key corn and soybean areas in Manchuria. This likely favors planting progress but may reduce soil moisture for early needs of the crop. Temperatures vary somewhat.
 
AUSTRALIA: Today's long range outlook shows a trough deepening over central and then eastern Australia during the middle to late part of next week while moisture slides southward out ahead of the trough. If real, it would mean significant rains for key wheat areas of New South Wales and Queensland. This appears to also be supported on today's European model.